Tuesday, September 30, 2008

The Bailout Made Simple

For those of you who are confused by what's going on with the Big Bailout, let me simplify all this for you:

*The bankers get $700 billion dollars. You get nothing.

*The bankers screwed up, and either lost your money or else simply stole it outright and fled to Israel with it. You paid your mortgage regularly and worked all your life to work up a little nest egg. The bankers get a pat on the back from the government with a comforting "Don't sweat it. I got this." You and your family get sodomized without benefit of vaseline, for the rest of your lives, which is how long the effects of this month will last.

*The bankers get to keep their immense wealth. You get to keep nothing.

*The bankers will continue to live in their huge mansions in the Hamptons, and their Central Park condos and their vacation homes on Maui. You lose your home and end up in a single-wide mobile home in a trailer park, if you're lucky, and under a bridge if you're not.

*The bankers will keep their jobs, or leave them with multi-million dollar golden parachutes to take a seat on the board of some other bank, just for something to do between golf games. You lose your job and will not be able to get another, because you are too old, too White, and too male.

*The bankers will spend the rest of their lives laughing at you over their cocktails at the country club. You and your family will spending the rest of your lives screaming in horror and weeping in despair.

*There are an estimated 160 million privately owned firearms in this country. You will not have the physical courage to pick up a single one of them.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Rats In The House, Wolves In The Woods

I have a friend we'll call Bob because it's only three letters and easy to type. Bob lives in a nice suburban home and is a kind, friendly American. We've been friends for years and he's always struck me as a font of common sense and decency. Until the past few years that is.

Bob's got rats in his house but for some reason he can't seem to admit it. But he goes on at great length about big, scary wolves in a faraway forest. Not putting too fine a point on it, it strikes me as insane. He invited me to dinner last week and it was a surreal experience.

I got to Bob's at about 7. Bob opened his front door and the unmistakable stench of rodent shit hit me immediately."Whoa! What's that smell, man?", I asked.

"What smell? Can I take your coat?" my host helpfully offered. I gave him my coat and Bob opened the closet door. A large rat scurried from the closet and ran under the couch in the living room.

"Bob, a rat just ran into your living room", I commented.

"What are you talking about?"Bob half-mindedly replied.

We went into the kitchen and two rats were on the counter by the sink eating through a loaf of bread. They didn't budge when we entered the room. Bob got two beers out of the fridge and gave me one. "The wolves ate two chickens and a farmer in Overtheristan yesterday", said Bob. "The wolf problem is getting quite severe. We really need to do something about it before they come here."

A huge crash followed Bob's words as a cabinet above the stove came open and three huge rats fell out fighting over a chocolate bar. They hit the floor and one rat took off into the hallway carrying the bar in its mouth. The other two crammed themselves under the stove. "Bob, you seem to have a real rat problem", I said.

At that, one of the rats on the counter stood up on its hind legs and actually hissed at me. I'd never seen a rat hiss before. It had breadcrumbs hanging from its whiskers and it seemed quite well-fed. At this, Bob made the first and only acknowledgement of the rats that I'd witnessed."Ix-nay on the at-ray alk-tay", Bob said in Pig Latin. "They hate that." He seemed terrified even speaking in Pig Latin about them, but then he went back to being his normal, congenial self after his denial kicked back into gear. "I bought a new rifle the other day. If the wolves come to my door, they'll reap the whirlwind from this American", he said cheerfully.

I have a great affection for my friend, but I had to leave. I'd suddenly noticed the fleas and lice from the rats and thought it healthier for me to remove myself. I hope my friend survives the rats in his house so that he can make his dreamed of stand with the wolf, but I really doubt he'll make it much longer.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Wahington Mutual's Last Press Release, Ever

by Steve Sailer

By commenter demand, here's the last press release from the nation's 6th largest bank on the day before it finally went under:

WaMu Recognized as Top Diverse Employer

SEATTLE, WA (September 24, 2008) – Washington Mutual, Inc. (NYSE:WM), one of the nation’s leading banks for consumers and small businesses, has once again been recognized as a top employer by Hispanic Business magazine and the Human Rights Campaign.
Hispanic Business magazine recently ranked WaMu sixth in its annual Diversity Elite list, which names the top 60 companies for Hispanics. The company was honored specifically for its efforts to recruit Hispanic employees, reach out to Hispanic consumers and support Hispanic communities and organizations.

The Human Rights Campaign, the largest national gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender (GLBT) civil rights organization, also awarded WaMu its second consecutive 100 percent score in the organization’s 2009 Corporate Equality Index (CEI), which measures progress in attaining equal rights for GLBT employees and consumers. WaMu joins the ranks of 259 other major U.S. businesses that also received top marks in the annual survey. The CEI rated a total of 583 businesses on GLBT-related policies and practices, including non-discrimination policies and domestic partner benefits.

In both surveys, WaMu earned points for competitive diversity policies and programs, including the recently established Latino, African American and GLBT employee network groups, all of which have a corporate executive sponsor and champion.

“Diversity is an integral part of cultivating a welcoming, innovative and dynamic workplace here at WaMu. We are proud to be recognized for the opportunities and benefits we offer to all of our employees, including the specific efforts we have made to engage Hispanics and the GLBT community,” said Steve Rotella, WaMu president and COO. “We are committed to diversity at WaMu and pledge to listen to our customers and work closely with our employees to continue to make progress.”

These two recent honors build upon diversity recognitions WaMu received earlier in 2008. WaMu was named one of 25 Noteworthy Companies by Diversity Inc magazine and one of the Top 50 Corporations for Supplier Diversity by Hispanic Enterprise magazine.

About WaMu

"WaMu, through its subsidiaries, is one of the nation's leading consumer and small business banks. At June 30, 2008, WaMu and its subsidiaries had assets of $309.73 billion. The company has a history dating back to 1889 and its subsidiary banks currently operate approximately 2,300 consumer and small business banking stores throughout the nation. WaMu’s press releases are available at http://newsroom.wamu.com.

Until recently, Washington Mutual was one of Wall Street’s strongest performers. It reaped big profits quarter after quarter as its then chief executive, Kerry K. Killinger, enlarged its presence by buying banks on both coasts and ramping up mortgage lending.

His goal was to transform what was once a sleepy Seattle thrift into the 'Wal-Mart of Banking,' which would cater to lower- and middle-class consumers that other banks deemed too risky. It offered complex mortgages and credit cards whose terms made it easy for the least creditworthy borrowers to get financing, a strategy the bank extended in big cities, including Chicago, New York and Los Angeles. With this grand plan, Mr. Killinger built Washington Mutual into the sixth-largest bank in the United States."

Okay, Mr. Killinger, but perhaps by now you've noticed the fundamental difference between Wal-Mart and WaMu: Wal-Mart takes money from lower and middle-class customers, while you gave money to them.While our increasingly diverse lower and middle-class American residents have been spending a lot in recent years in our vibrant, globalized economy, they haven't been making a lot. (You may have noticed that our elites were united in their horror of "wage inflation" and did their best to combat it through encouraging massive immigration, outsourcing, cutting tariffs, and the like.)

In the long run, that's a problem. To cover the difference between what the bottom 2/3rds or whatever of society was spending and making, they've been going more in debt to, say, WaMu. You were able to mark that up as profits, which Wall Street celebrated, but eventually the clock struck twelve and the carriage turned back into a pumpkin.

To broaden the subject slightly, it's interesting that we don't yet have a name for this decade yet, even though it's almost over. All other decades for the last 80 years were named directly from the third digit (e.g., The Sixties), but nobody has agreed upon a quantitative title for this decade. Therefore, we should feel free to recommend a qualitative name. Pardon the vulgarity, but at this point I can't come up with anything more descriptive and accurate than The Bullshit Years.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Northwest Observer for October 2008

The October issue of Northwest Observer rolled off ye presses today. For a free sample copy e-mail me at nwnet@earthlink.net or harold_covington@hotmail.com

Thursday, September 25, 2008

ADT On Usury and World Domination

The ultimate goal of the usury system, ladies and gents, is for Yehudi finally to get his hands on all the marbles. They plan to do this through the collection of interest. The more paper money there is in circulation, the higher interest rates are charged. Eventually a situation will be reached where ninety-nine percent of the world’s population will owe one percent of the world’s population an interest debt so colossal that it is equivalent to all the money in existence. True world dominations, guys.

-A Distant Thunder
page 150

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

C. S. Lewis On Insufferable Liberal Assholes

"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience."

-C. S. Lewis
English essayist (1898 - 1963)

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

On the Verge of Depression

"In 2008, Americans will wake up to the worst economic times that anyone alive has ever seen. And they won't know what hit them." --Gerald Celente, 17 December 2007

As Predicted, Economic 9/11 Hits Wall Street:

Depression Next, Trend Seer Says

RHINEBECK, NY 18 September 2008 -- In 2007, Trend forecaster Gerald Celente predicted that an "Economic 9/11" would hit Wall Street in 2008.* As the world knows, on 9/15 it did.The financial world is in free fall and very few saw it coming. As the The New York Times wrote, "A year into the financial crisis, few dreamed that the situation would spiral down, so far, so fast." (NYT, 15 September 2008.)

Even now, in the midst of the chaos, Wall Street, Washington and the media, are in damage control mode, still unwilling to acknowledge the dire implications of the acknowledged facts.

According to Celente, the worst is yet to come, and it's going to go global. He said, that the old adage, 'when America sneezes the rest of the world catches pneumonia,' holds truer than the newly minted "de-coupling" theory that global growth can be sustained absent a strong US marketplace.

"Equity markets worldwide have collapsed and there is nothing in place that will support them," said Celente. "Lehman Brothers was the biggest bankruptcy in United States history and it won't be the last. There will be many more 'too big to fails' and there won't be enough money to bail them all out. First it was Bear Stearns; then it was Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, A.I.G.; tomorrow there will be others," said Celente, Director of the Trends Research Institute.

"And the failures will extend beyond the financial sector," he predicted. "In the coming weeks, months and years, we'll see a steady stream of banks, giant retailers, consumer product companies, manufacturers, leveraged buyout firms and home builders going under. The next economic shoe to drop will be in the commercial real estate sector," he said.

Asked how he was able to see what others could not, Celente marveled, "How could they not have seen it coming? Virtually every day since July 24, 2007, when the Dow took a 226 point dive, we've been bombarded with a steady stream of dire economic news and depressing data."When asked if the stock market has now bottomed, Celente said "don't ask me, ask Cramer." The CNBC Mad Money guru, Jim Cramer, asserted on July 29 that the market bottomed from "the panicked lows it hit on July 15."

"It's black comedy," said Celente, "I don't know whose bottom he was talking about. Even now, when you turn on the business news, the "experts" who didn't see the panic coming are still telling us the market has 'capitulated' and a 'bottom' is being formed."But I wouldn't be surprised if the Dow sinks to 8,000. When you add up the data it equals Depression," said Celente, who also accurately predicted the 1987 stock market crash, the Asian currency crisis, the last two recessions and the dot.com bust, to name a few of his major calls.

"...Despite the hard evidence and loud warning bells, many people are still in denial. They hear what they want and hope against hope. Conventional wisdom holds that the financial turbulence will pass and the long-term fundamentals are sound. They are not. Empire America is collapsing and neither the Fed, Congress, the President nor the Presidents-in-waiting will be able to do anything substantive to reverse the course."

Monday, September 22, 2008

The Cause of the Mortgage Crash

Remember when all this economic hoo-hah started last spring with the "housing crisis" in the "sub-prime mortgage market?" That's a code word for high-risk mortgage loans to niggers and illegal aliens, plus (admittedly) a few dysfunctional white trash meth heads who should never have passed even the most rudimentary credit check. But mostly niggers and illegal aliens. 90% of the failing sub-prime mortgages are loans made to people who should not have been loaned a penny, but who skated by on the dusky color of their skins.

Our nation is being wrecked by non-White minorities and the sicko Whites who advocate giving them things. The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (The Federal Reserve is a private corporation wholly owned and operated by Jews, not a government body as most people think)--put out a manual in the 1990's that warned mortgage lenders to no longer deny urban and lower-income minority applicants on such "outdated" criteria as credit history, down payment or employment income.

That and the fact that many mortgage lenders are run by greedy, unscrupulous, and completely irresponsible capitalist bastards of all races who work on commission based on how much paper "business" they write and hence will lend money to any Juan, Jose or Jamal who walks in the door.

Needless to say, nothing will ever be done to punish the Jews and greedy mortgage bankers who did all this.

Check out

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=75717

if you don't believe me.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

This Is The Way We're Headed

You see this?

This is a Zimbabwean 500 million dollar bank note, or bill.

Zimbabwe is a nation ruled by a nigger dictator, as we will be one Diebold "elects" the Funky Monkey in November.

We are now in a massive economic crisis. The worst possible thing that can be done is to start up the presses and just start printing money, as Robert Mugabe did and as the Federal Reserve is doing now.

The combination of Jewish greed and nigger incompetence is a lethal one. This country, what is left of it after almost a century of this Jew liberal garbage, will be destroyed in our lifetimes.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Old Hickory Speaks

President Andrew Jackson's words on central banking:

"Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I intend to rout you out, and by the Eternal God, I will rout you out... If people only understood the rank injustice of the money and banking system, there would be a revolution by morning."

Thursday, September 18, 2008

All This Economy Stuff

Guys, I say again--yes, I know all this economy stuff is boring. I know it uses big words and conveys ideas instead of images. I know it hurts your head to read a block of type and try to figure out what the words mean. But you have to understand this stuff and not just turn away to the web page on Lindsay Lohan and her lesbian lover. Please! It's going to destroy your world and your family and you must come to grips with it.

Now go back down and read that last one again, slowly, from the top, and think about what it says, before we continue.

14th Century Economics Lesson

[An oldie but goodie which can serve as a basic primer on how the modern economy actually works.. - HAC]

A long time supporter recently asked me to clarify a couple of points in the Party Program, specifically the prohibition against usury. “Are you going to confiscate all individuals’ life savings because they have earned interest?” The short answer, of course, is no, but it did remind me that we need to pay at least some attention to economics from an NS point of view. The nature of usury is a good place to start.

Before we can understand the National Socialist solution for the economic woes of capitalist society, we must first understand the way our present form of usury-generated finance capitalism arose in the Middle Ages and early Renaissance period. Not for nothing is economics called the dismal science; it is not only a complex subject but usually pretty boring. Please bear with me; I’ll try to keep this as simple and interesting as I can. I’m reading a book on Renaissance Italy at the moment, and it’s inspired me to use a concrete example from the past to show how our present economic order developed. All this is going to be very greatly oversimplified, of course, but I hope it will help you understand one of the many long paths our people have taken to arrive at our present mess.

First off, you need to understand that although Karl Marx was full of sheep dip, he did recognize and articulate certain correct and vitally important things about the nature of capitalism. Capitalism is utterly dependent on the exploitation of human beings for their labor, and in order to function capitalism must reinvent Man as a commodity, an economic unit of production and consumption. This dehumanizing concept has proven one of the most destructive aspects of the Jewish incursion into Western civilization.

Secondly, capitalism is dependent for the generation of capital not only on profit, but on the highly cost effective form of profit known as usury, the collection of interest on loaned money. Long recognized as the ultimate tool of Jewish power, usury was forbidden for centuries to Christians (which used to be pretty much the same thing as saying Aryans) by the Church. Only Jews were allowed to practice it, and any Aryan found charging interest was subject to a variety of penalties ranging from fines to the public removal of bits and pieces of the offender’s anatomy.

Modern day banks would have you believe that the economy is entirely dependent on the charging of interest, but that’s BS. The generation of non-production related profit through interest is actually a fairly recent development in man’s economic history. So how did the economy work in the days before usury? A good case study would be the rise and fall of the great Lombard banking houses of Italy during the Middle Ages.

Okay: let’s say we’re in Venice, a great trading city, about the year 1396. Usury is forbidden to everyone except the Jews, and their interest rates are as high as 50%, so nobody but a drunk or a madman deals with them anyway. The Jewish moneylenders exist on interest mostly off the very poor, as pawnbrokers, and the Church has even established a series of interest-free co-op religious pawn shops to try and protect the poor from the bloodsuckers. But if you’re a merchant you still have to finance your ventures, so how do you do it?

Let’s say you want to send a ship to Constantinople full of Italian goodies, cloth, worked metal goods such as cutlery and tools, glassware, wool, wine, so forth and so on. Then you want to bring back the same ship to Venice, full of Oriental goodies like spices, mahogany, Turkish rugs, etc. We will assign an arbitrary cost to this venture of 10,000 gold florins. You believe, and you can back it up to potential partners, that the profit from the sale of your goods in Constantinople and the resale of their goods in Venice will yield 20,000 florins, which for the sake of argument we’ll accept as accurate.

Where do you get the money? You can put up the entire ten grand yourself if you’re filthy rich, and many of the wealthiest merchant adventurers do, as well as putting up their lives, for many of these guys are not just businessmen, they’re sea captains and explorers and occasional pirates, and often they command their own vessels. They can opt to take all the risk, including the risk of the ship sinking or getting captured by pirates, and take all the profit. Or they can look for investors to share the risk.

Since our hypothetical merchant is a good Christian who doesn’t want to deal with hebes and a good businessman who doesn’t want to pay half his profit to (literally) a Shylock, he goes to one or more of the great Lombard banking houses, the Bardi, the Pazzi, the Strozzi, the Albizzi, or the up-and-coming Medici. These banks are centered mostly in Florence or Siena, but they have branches all over Europe in a day when the first Rothschilds are still haggling with peasants over the pawn of their wooden shoes for a few pfennig. Our merchant adventurer goes to the banks, most likely several of them because they will be more likely to back him if their individual exposure is less. He explains his venture, shows them the ship so they know it’s a stout seaworthy vessel, lets them know he’ll be captaining the voyage himself, and points out that he’s got a good track record of a dozen prosperous expeditions prior to this. He looks good to the Lombards, and so they lend him the dough. The total outlay for this project is ten grand in gold florins. The merchant himself will put up 4,000 florins, or 40%. The Bardi, the Strozzi, and the Medici banks will put up 2,000 each. They know they will have to wait one year for the ship’s return to find out how they did. This is the origin of the old expression “when my ship comes in.”

If everything goes according to plan, the venture will bring in 20,000 gold florins, thus recouping everyone’s initial investment and leaving ten grand profit. The merchant will take four grand of the surplus and the three banks two grand each, a 100% return on their investment. Good business—and something comes of it when those who can afford it get a nice Persian rug or some pepper to put on Aunt Maria’s lasagna, which in the days before refrigeration disguises the taste of the half-putrefied sausage she uses in her recipe.

Of course it was all a lot more complicated than that. For instance, in many cases the ship’s captain, if he was not the owner, would have a substantial share and the crew would be paid not only a minimum wage but a small share each as well, plus there was taxes and overhead just like today —but you get the idea. A rich merchant might send out ten ships a year under this system; three vessels are lost, but seven of them return fully laden with consumer goods and raw materials, leaving an overall profit and Venetian society wealthier thereby.

Do you note the difference between this system and Jewish usury? The Lombard banking system was based on productivity for profit, whereas the Jewish usury system is a shell game where money multiplies by itself without relation to anything in the real world. Under the Aryan system money was to be earned by buying actual things of value low and selling high, by making something, or building something, or undertaking risks to obtain something material and tangible.

In this example the objective was the importation of X amount of real consumer goods, not the manipulation of numbers on a piece of paper as in, say, today’s Stock Exchange or commodities market where there is only the most tenuous connection, if any, between the arbitrary value of the paper and any real or valuable object or commodity. If the voyage didn’t succeed, the investors were out their money, and this risk element led to a high degree of caution, canniness, and ability to assess risk as well as encouraged daring and enterprise for higher profits. The merchant princes of Renaissance Italy may have had a taste for luxurious living, intrigue, and poisoning one another, but they never threw money away like present-day governments and multinationals. They had worked and sweated and bled and killed to get it.

Another variation on this system was public works, for example the bridges over the river Arno in Florence, many of which were built by the bankers who were then allowed to collect tolls until they had recovered the expense of construction and a set profit—after which the bridges became free. There are endless variations: money was lent for agriculture, to build a factory or a workshop, to build a road, whatever, but always something you could touch, feel, taste, use or consume. Money did not magically produce money out of nothing as it does with usury.

So when did usury get its first foothold in the Western economy? Basically, when the Aryan ruling élite of that time, like their counterparts of the twentieth century, lost sight of their principles in the scramble for wealth and started acting like Jews. Unfortunately, the first big capitalist usurers in modern history were these same Lombard bankers in their later stages; the Jews then slid in on the coattails of the true claim that “everybody is doing it,” and within a short time they were running the whole game.

From the point of view of the lender, usury has one advantage over the productivity or venture-based system: it eliminates risk, for the lender, anyway. But it increases risk manyfold for the borrower, who not only puts his business and his own capital on the line but sometimes everything he possesses.

The borrower signs a bond or contract borrowing ten thousand florins and promising to pay back fifteen come what may, and as collateral he gives the lender the right to seize certain property if he is unable to pay by the stated date. The Lombard banking system was essentially a tool for the production of new wealth, while usury is a system for transferring existing wealth into a smaller number of hands, usually Jewish.

Essentially two things happened. First, a lot of the Lombard banks crashed down through the years when they inevitably made too many bad decisions, creating fewer and bigger banks handling more money led by more unscrupulous men as the Renaissance advanced. (Late Renaissance bankers and financial tycoons were often converted Jews, many of whom continued to practice Judaism in secret and openly favored their own people at the expense of their host nations.) Additionally, the Church became corrupt and quit enforcing the anti-usury statutes, and the secular princes and dukes and whatnot got into debt to the banks and overlooked the fact that they had begun to charge interest just like the Jews. Usury crept into our economy in stages, and it was still frowned upon even as late as the nineteenth century. (A character in a Sherlock Holmes story, for example, a ruined gambling nobleman who has mortgaged everything he owns and is about to lose it all, is referred to as being “in the hands of the Jews” by author Arthur Conan Doyle, an expression one could still get away with using as late as the 1890s.) Now, of course, we’ve got credit cards operating out of states like South Dakota with no banking laws to speak of who charge 29% revolving interest. It’s actually cheaper to borrow money from the Mob, organized crime’s traditional “vigorish” or interest rate being six for five or about 18%.

Another question I have been asked is about an article wherein I advocated a return to the gold standard. As most topics dealing with money seem to do, this also gets into the Jewish situation. Plus d’argent, voici les Juifs, as the French say.

Money was first invented as a substitute for barter, and for millennia consisted only of gold, silver, and occasionally copper or bronze coinage. Eventually as commerce expanded, it became too cumbersome and dangerous to go on a trading expedition lugging long mule trains loaded with gold coin, so with the establishment of the first medieval banks the paper bank draft was invented, allowing a merchant in London to travel to Paris carrying only a document instead of heavy bags of money so tempting to bandits, do his business, deposit his profits in the Paris branch of the Bardi or whoever, and then draw them out again from the London branch when he got home. This was the first paper money, and it was specific, like a check made out to only one person.

Eventually the Lombard and later Jewish banks began to issue what today we would call negotiable securities or debentures—bank drafts for X amount of money with no name on them, which could be used as legal tender to buy, sell, pay, and lend. The practice of individual banks issuing their own paper money continued up until the beginning of the 20th century; you can see all kinds of examples in museums.

In the flourishing and expanding economy of a dynamic young America, private banks, states, cities, even railroads issued their own paper money. But these paper notes or bills were always gold or sometimes silver certificates—that is, if you had a ten dollar bill from the First National Bank of Philadelphia and you took it in to that bank, you had the right to get a ten dollar gold piece for it. Paper money was originally intended as a convenience, not as a substitute for precious metals.

Redeemability in gold or silver had one big advantage: it kept the money supply under control and pretty much eliminated the curse of inflation and insane interest rates. Almost all the inflationary spirals in the past, aside from the odd catastrophe like the Black Death, have had to do with the uncontrolled issue of paper money, i.e. the Continental Congress period (my grandfather still used the expression “not worth a Continental”); Confederate money; the Weimar period in Germany, etc.

In 1913, this country did something so stupid that it defies rational analysis even today. We handed control of our money to the Jews in the form of a private corporation, the Federal Reserve, every head and important official of which from 1913 to this day has been Jewish. There is no such thing as U.S. currency, only Federal Reserve currency which is by law the only authorized form of legal tender. It took the Jews twenty years to take us off the gold standard and free themselves of the obligation to back up their green paper with gold or silver, but they managed it, and from 1934 onward the Jews have literally had a license to print money hand over fist.

The more paper money there is in circulation, the higher interest rates are charged (and the more impossible it becomes for young White married people to buy a home.) It’s all very complicated and I don’t understand all the ins and outs of it myself, but basically the cause of the inflation and the insanely high cost of everything today is due to the Federal Reserve system using our money as a means to enrich world Jewry and loot the Goldeneh Medina -- in Yiddish The Golden Honeycomb, their word for America.

I have in the past advocated a return to the gold standard as a temporary measure to get the money supply under control, reverse the wage-price spiral and get the cost of living under control, and to see if we can’t slash the incredibly inflated cost of real property to the point where young couples can actually buy a home large enough to raise children in, not some crackerbox condo or renting until they’re forty. What I would eventually like to see...

Ah, well, that’s for another time.

88!
Harold A. Covington

The Crash Is Here

"This is a classic Titanic situation, in the sense that what we saw with the Fannie And Freddie bailouts and the Bear Stearns bailouts and now the AIG request for more Than forty billion more dollars from the federal government – it’s just like the Titanic, where the rich and affluent were given the lifeboats and the rest of the people went under from steerage. The rich and powerful are too big to fail; the rest of us are too small to save.”

- Gerald Celente
The Trends Journal

Hi, guys.

I'm going to be running a series on the ongoing implosion of the financial system, and I warn you, some of the articles are going to be long, and will use big words, and will hurt your head. But this stuff is important. You need to understand it.

I'm going to be using the word Jews a lot in this series, and I want to make clear that yes, I know perfectly well that many of the men (almost no women) involved in the responsibility for this god-awful mess are not racially or religiously Jewish. However, as the great Pastor Bob Miles once said, "Judaism is not a religion or even a race. Judaism is a state of mind."

I define a Jew as someone with a completely materialistic and non-spiritual world view, devoid of any mystical, supernatural, or ethical element. By that definition, some of these assholes in expensive business suits, from Texas yay-hoo oil company execs to slick British company promoters who elocute like David Niven while they rob you blind and piss on you are the worst Jews in the world.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

An Interesting Vignette of American Life

Hello all!!

I have a moment to share something that happened yesterday while I was waiting to deal with a traffic citation. I was sitting in a courtroom with about 65 others, of which 10-12 were Mexican, when an interpretor walked in and called all the Mex's to the other side of the court.

When she got them together to coach them as to what to do, the lady sitting next to me starts going off about special treatment and how "they" don't belong here. I looked over at her and told her she had every right to be angry at the situation and that we are getting screwed by this system. At this time she tells me a story about her 8 year old daughter, who is in a class of about 30 students. She is the only white girl, and the rest are Mexican. The girl is constantly picked on by the others and ridiculed, not to mention she is trying to learn in a predominently Spanish language enviroment.

The mom went on to explain how she tried to have her daughter moved to a class with more children like her and was told that she was being racist (like this is a bad thing) so her daughter is stuck. I explained that she can transfer her kids to a neighboring town. She was aware of this and even had her older son doing it until the price of fuel made it impossible. Her high school age son was mugged for his iPod and his watch and calculator. When the beaners were questioned they simply said they misunderstood the language and were only borrowing his stuff. What bullshit.

Now bear in mind that this is a farm community, and not some inner city barrio. She explained that they moved there and now realizing the mistake, the market soured, they are stuck and cannot sell their house. I was angered, saddened and truly moved by this family's plight.

I will be the first to admit that I have been very lazy this summer and have been slacking in my political outreach, but this really lit me up. I walked out of there feeling sick about the whole thing, and in a way blaming myself for my lack of action. I did tell her that things would change soon, and I kicked myself for not having some literature to give her. However, I was able to get her name for future contact.

Life is funny, You just never know when something is going to motivate you and get you going again. Hope you all have a good day!

-Scott

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Ten Principles of National Socialist Thought

I. BE HONEST. A National Socialist faces a fact whether he likes it or not. Dishonesty is the mark of the enemy. National Socialism above all represents living truth in its purest form.

II. BELIEVE IN GOD AND YOURSELF. The God of Destiny subjects only His strongest mortals to enormous tasks which would crush lesser men. God wills only the best to fulfill the highest task of life: to perfect mankind. Give yourself utterly unto Destiny, and God will shield you in your fight. God helps only those who help themselves. We will lose only if we lay down our arms due to our weakness and cowardice. There is only one true disgrace: submission to the enemies of our race.

III. BE FAITHFUL TO YOUR RACE. No one must be allowed to spoil what Nature created down through aeons of racial evolution. Your highest purpose in life is to carry on that evolution toward a stronger, better, more beautiful mankind. The purity and strengthening of the Aryan race is the basic requirement of every future higher evolution.

IV. FIGHT FOR YOUR RACE. Fight for the holy ideals of National Socialism, the heart of your great race. Only in this struggle can you prove your true worth as a man or a woman. Only thus can you fulfill your potential for courage, dedication, and ennobling self-sacrifice. Life's struggle for survival brought Man upwards from the apelike beings of the distant past to the height of Aryan culture and achievement. The Party's struggle will produce the revolutionary elite who will lead the National Socialist ideal to victory.

V. YOU ARE A SUPERIOR INDIVIDUAL. You will be outnumbered in this struggle, because the best are always a minority. History-making decisions have never been the work of formless masses, but always victories by active and dedicated minorities. You are both the servant and the spokesperson for your race. Make sure you set an example worthy to be followed in your person and your life.

VI. LOVE YOUR BROTHERS AND SISTERS. You owe your existence to your racial family; let your love of them be your overriding passion in life. Do not fear the Undermen, the racially inferior, and do not persecute them. You are their superior, but you are not their owner. When the time comes to fight them, do not lose your senses through counterproductive hatred. Detach yourself, clear your mind, and destroy them completely, methodically, clinically, as if in a surgical operation. Nothing is more pointless than wasting time hating mud people; it detracts from the positive love of your own.

VII. IMPROVE YOUR BROTHERS AND SISTERS. All Aryan men and women are your brothers and sisters, although not all are equally intelligent or courageous. It is up to you to inform them, to encourage them, and to instill their hearts with courage. Some of your kinsfolk have been misled and made ugly by the Judaic evil which is corrupting our racial soul. You must not hate them on that account, but rather strive to bring them back to their racial family.

VIII. REJECT THE DECADENCE. Decadence is anything which detracts either physically or spiritually from the health and the upward development of our Aryan race. You must hold your racial and spiritual purity above your very life, and not associate with anything which is decadent or which gives your life the appearance of decadence. Every aspect of life must be judged in relation to the survival and improvement of your race; anything hindering these attainments must be ruthlessly rooted out and destroyed.

IX. THE BEST MUST RULE. All great achievements on earth are the product of great leadership, political or scientific or artistic. The racial community can gain strength only by applying the Leadership Principle and placing in front the men and women who have demonstrated superior ability, dedication, and tenacity in the racial struggle. Democracy is a sickness which leads inevitably to chaos, corruption, and the collapse of society; from democracy steps forth the cruellest of tyrants.

X. NOTHING IS IMPOSSIBLE. Where there is a will, there is a way. Everything falls before the man of indomitable will. Suffering and sacrifice are necessary; we are hardening ourselves for the most decisive struggle in all of human history. Victory will fall only to the most truthful, the most fanatical, the strongest, the bravest, and the best. Be that.

Monday, September 15, 2008

He's Quite Insane, You Know

So, now Jug-Ears is invading Pakistan, or at least crossing the Pakistani border and bombing the bejesus out of whatever he sees fit. Weddings, schools, hospitals, herds of goats, whatever.

The Pakistanis finally threw out Jug's puppet Musharraf (after someone made mah main woman Benazir go splat, since she was presumably a fly in somebody's soup.) This is how Jug-Ears responds, by simply unleashing the bombers and the buzz-cut birdbrains on steroids, our own Gang Who Can't Shoot Straight and who can't seem to tell the difference between Osama and a little child going to school. Without even a pretense of Congressional consultation, without even any attempt to conceal what he's doing. Violating international law in between sips of bourbon. Why not? No one is going to do anything about him.

The President of the United States is a homicidal alcoholic with severe mental and emotional problems. The rest of America are a bunch of pussy-whipped cowards. We deserve each other.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Our Official Movement Flick

[Classic Thoughtcrime from 2005, still valid.]

I have been told on several occasions that a large part of our problem is that I am confronting a functionally illiterate people, in my e-mails and newsletters, with texts. With fixed words in black and white when they want color and motion to seize that short attention span.I am asking them to read blocks of type, sometimes quite long ones, for content. This was the way it was done in Europe a hundred years ago, to be sure, but this is America today, and the palefaces must see pictures containing a lot of action, physical motion, noise, explosions, etc. We no longer respond to print, we respond to Hollywood.

Okay, fine. I believe I have found a Hollywood movie that conveys to a large extent what I am trying to say.

A couple of weeks ago I finally got to see the movie Michael Collins on television, unfortunately a cut-down version interrupted by innumerable ads. I immediately went out the next day and searched the video stores until I located and purchased the DVD.

I cannot overemphasize the importance for our Northwest movement of seeing this movie and internalizing the two lessons it conveys from Irish history. First, the absolute necessity of physical struggle and physical courage as the only way to overthrow tyranny, and secondly the terrible price that a revolutionary movement can pay for personality conflicts between people who should be fighting together against a common enemy.

In this movie you will, for a very rare change, be confronted with the image of White men fighting for freedom with (more or less) modern weapons in their hands against a mighty empire. The image of the White rebel or of any kind of strong White male character is one that is very seldom seen on the silver screen, so seldom that the rare exceptions like Michael Collins and Braveheart are notable--and, significantly I think, they are always very good box office draws.

There are no nigger sidekicks in Michael Collins, no Mexican girlfriends, no smart-ass little Jews explaining it all to the big dumb blond hero, or anything like that. There is not a single black or brown or yellow face in the whole movie.

That alone makes it worth it. I personally would have preferred an Irish or British actress for the role of Kitty Kiernan to Julia Roberts, but I have to admit she does it very well. You would have to have lived in Ireland to fully appreciate Liam Neeson's magnificent and distinctive West Cork dialect; you can actually hear the differences between that and Belfast and Dublin.

Some people have recommended that Return of the King become our official Movement Flick. I haven't seen the third movie yet, since I can't afford a theater ticket (never mind the popcorn) and must wait for DVD, but I am told it's superb.

But I have one objection to that idea, and that is that Tolkien's epic is a fantasy--and white people live way, way too much in a fantasy world as it is. We need to get out of fantasy and back into the real world.

Some people have recommended Braveheart which I think is a little closer to the mark and much more political, a truly mighty cinematic accomplishment, all the greater now that we have some idea of Mel Gibson's private political views. But the year 1300 is a bit too far back. We're not trying to revive the Middle Ages.

Michael Collins is close enough in time. I remember seeing the old men on their canes wearing the Old IRA badge and beret on the streets of Dublin, and I've seen the bullet and shrapnel scars in Boland's Bakery and the Four Courts. It also deals with a colonial revolt by White males against a mighty world empire. The parallels are clear.

For our official Movement Flick, until Mel Gibson takes me up on my offer to film The Hill of the Ravens, I nominate Michael Collins.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

The Amazing Disappearing Wetback

An amazing thing has happened to the issue of illegal immigration during the 2008 election.

It's disappeared. Poof! Vanished in a puff of smoke. The candidates muttered the odd vague mention of it every now and then during the primaries, but even that has disappeared now.

That's because both parties intend to throw open the borders and legalize limitless Third World immigration, and amnesty those illegals already here, in preparation for the North American Union. During our lifetimes--not off in whatever vague future we thought we had left--America will, quite simply, cease to be America and become part of Mexico, both demographically and legally. When we are in our 70s we're going to be in trouble, because we won't speak Spanish and we won't be able to communicate with anyone younger than maybe 50-ish or so. Imagine what our nursing homes will be like then.

Now, we can stop this. But IT'S NOT FREE. I have told you what you need to do about this, but I can't make you brave; that you must find within yourselves, or not as the case may be.

The first thing is it's going to cost you is $20-odd dollars for a book and for shipping. Go to

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1436328020/sr=1-13/qid=1218048036/ref=olp_product_details?ie=UTF8&me=&qid=1218048036&sr=1-13&seller=

and order The Brigade. Then turn off that goddamned television with nothing but the grinning face of that monkey on the screen, and read the book. That's your first step.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Galveston To Be Cleansed of Niggers?

If Galveston gets blown away like it did 108 years ago, I will be saddened by the loss of some very interesting architecture and the remnants of a faded, leisurely and rococo ambience, plus what were once some nice beaches. But the city itself is now almost all black and Mexican, the beaches are filthy and littered with garbage and empty syringes, and the gangs hanging on the beaches make it impossible for White families to vacation there any more. Not to mention the junkies, the homeless, and the general sleaze. Galveston was beautiful once, until diversity made it ugly and diseased.

The city will be a loss. The people in it won't.

We De New Niggaz

Today my dad went down to sign up for the drought relief that the USDA is giving to cattle ranchers. The people who get it are supposed to have pay the $250 fee for the drought insurance, unless they belong to a minority group and have been discriminated against.

My dad told them he was a Nazi and got discriminated against all the time because of it. They waived the fee..... I thought that was wonderful. Now we are a recognized minority.

-Montana Gal

I once got a job on an affirmative action quota by putting down as a joke that I was a polygamous Mormon. True story. - HAC

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Ronald Reagan on George W. Bush

"A moment I've been dreading. George brought his n'er-do-well son around this morning and asked me to find the kid a job. Not the political one who lives in Florida; the one who hangs around here all the time looking shiftless. This so-called kid is already almost 40 and has never had a real job. Maybe I'll call Kinsley over at The New Republic and see if they'll hire him as a contributing editor or something. That looks like easy work."

From the Reagan diaries
entry dated May 17, 1986.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Here It Is Again (You Keep Asking. Really.)

Dear HAC:

I have a friend is is running an online group that believes in creating cells and what not, preparing for The Day. I told her that she should read The Brigade.

She wants her whole group to read it so they can learn from it. Your book is way too large to post it there....could I have a link to the online version of The Brigade? That way I can direct people to your site to read The Brigade and to learn more about he Northwest Movement. I saw it as a great opportunity to advertise your hard work to a group of people looking for direction. She has made me her vice because some of the things I have mentioned I learned from the book. I told her so and now she wants all to read the book.

James K.

***************************

Dear James:

The Brigade can be downloaded as an MS Word document from

http://www.mediafire.com/?84ztmxxxmnr

That has the advantage of saving the person money, of course, and some people have no problem reading a lengthy book on a computer screen. Others do. For those who want a real book to hold in their hand and read in the traditional manner, you can order The Brigade from Barnes and Noble or from Amazon.com online.

http://search.barnesandnoble.com/booksearch/results.asp?WRD=The+Brigade+by+H%2E+A%2E+Covington

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1436328020/sr=1-13/qid=1218048036/ref=olp_product_details?ie=UTF8&me=&qid=1218048036&sr=1-13&seller=

-HAC

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

A Clear and Present Danger

One of the most enraging things I've seen on TV lately was a police chase where they were after a young wetback punk who was high on crack, bare chested, and speeding down residential streets in a stolen Toyota.

This little ass-boil wrecked half-a-dozen cars in his bid to escape the law, not to mention crumpling the stolen car like a stepped-on beer can. He would wave to his neighbors in the hood, who waved back and cheered him on as he continued to wreck all kinds of property. The cops finally spun him out and jerked him from the car, at which time they were attacked by the wetbacks of the neighborhood. They came at the cops with knives, clubs and fists, cussing and screaming..women included. They had to call in backup to restore order and lock up a bunch of these ungrateful parasite invaders.

You see, they figured that their little Latino brother here didn't deserve punishment. After all, he was only stealing something. And as we all know, Latinos are raised from the ground up to look at theft as a part of life, not a sin or a moral failure. Hell, they all do it. I had one wetback get in my face once and tell me,"If you can't watch yo' shit, whitey, you don't deserve to have it!"

What the Sam Hell kind of attitude is that? In my world, you don't have to "watch yo' shit" because people have honor and integrity and wouldn't dream of stealing from you. But then, that's why we now have all these tough new laws, video cameras, security systems, and new jails and prisons. It's an attempt by an overwhelmed system to cope with the ever increasing flood on Third World animals into our country.

There's only one proper way to deal with these lowlifes, and that's with lead. You can't reason or negotiate with morons.

These are a greedy, theft-oriented, parasitic race that has no conscience problem coming over here and taking what they know they don't own, didn't earn, and definitely don't deserve. In South America they're punished brutally for theft, because it's such a horrific problem there. But here they get a slap on the wrist..if that. No deportation, no irate Americans stomping them in back alleys, no demonstrations, nothing. Whites just cower in their homes as they creep into their neighborhoods like cockroaches and start breeding.


And they're getting bolder and more brazen all the time as they see our Congress hog-tied into inaction once again by the exact-same core of liberal fanatics that have mired down the deportation and fence bills for the past ten years. Pelosi, Reid, and Kennedy. The Three Stooges of High Treason. If it were up to me all three would be publicly executed...slowly. If ever the United States had dangerous enemies, it's these three.

Now this trio is blocking the lifting of the drilling ban, the SAVE Act, and the fence, all at the same time. And to make matters worse, Obama has pledged to support them. McCain has promised to remain on his liberal course as well, which will guarantee amnesty for all invaders. This old fool re-stated his views again on Wolf Blitzer today, making my poor TV a target for my boot once again. God! I'd love to get any of those weasels alone in a room for half-an-hour! And all the while ole' Pedro is smiling his greedy, toothy grin at the news as his wife prepares to pop another nasty wetlet.

Things have progressed far past wrong and all the way to insane in this country. Waiting for our corrupt government to do the right thing is like waiting for pigs to fly. Aint' gonna happen. If anything is ever going to get set right again in this country, we are going to have to do it ourselves. And no, it won't be easy. That's because our government has become so corrupt and insane with false logic and the mental cancer of political correctness that it'll turn on its own people like a rattlesnake if we take matters into our own hands.

Never mind that the invaders are here illegally, violating federal law. If we enforce it, the government will charge us as the criminals and defend the real crooks. It'll say we don't have the right to clean house. Sure we do. Trouble is, they want to have the authority to do it, but not to exercise it. We have not only the right to set matter right, we have a duty to do so. It's our sacred responsibility to resist the government when
it becomes corrupt and no longer represents the people.


Our own founding Fathers warned us of this and ordered us to do it. Ordered us! We need to see our government for what it is...our mortal enemy, and the enemy of the Union. It is a clear and present danger to the nation's security and continued survival. It's high time we all viewed it that way, along with all the un-invited and un-welcome invaders it's pumping into our country.

We know what has to be done, the question is, how many of us have the backbone to do it?

-The Lone Haranguer




Monday, September 08, 2008

Media Blackout: The Armada In The Gulf

by Gary North

[Yes, I know this article is long, and I know that Americans have difficulty reading long blocks of type for content anymore; your attention span is that of a housefly, and reading all these big words hurts your head. You much prefer cartoons with dancing turds like South Park, or naked little boys like The Simpsons. However, this article contains information that YOU NEED TO KNOW for your own and your family's survival. However long and however many big words and complex ideas it contains, you need to at least TRY to read and understand it.

This is IMPORTANT, people. You NEED TO KNOW this stuff. Please, give it a shot. - HAC]

August 27, 2008

The most important news for the month of August was the fact that President Bush has quietly sent the largest armada into the Persian Gulf since the Iraq war began in 2003, when there were six carrier groups. This is a huge number of ships to be concentrated in one location in peacetime.

This story has been completely ignored by the news media all over the West. The only coverage is from special-interest websites. Here is the basic story. Two aircraft carrier task forces, the Abraham Lincoln and the Peleliu, are already in the Persian Gulf. This is verifiable on the Websites of the carriers. A third task force, the Iwo Jima, was dispatched to the Gulf on August 22. This has been verified by a naval source. Two more – the Theodore Roosevelt and the Ronald Reagan – are said to be sailing to the Gulf, but I was unable to verify this from official sources.

The Jerusalem Post reported this, as did at least one Egyptian newspaper cited by the Post. The Arab world is aware of all this. Western audiences are not. We do know from naval sources that in July, the Theodore Roosevelt was involved in joint naval maneuvers with the French Navy. Think about this for a moment. When was the last time you read of joint naval operations between the United States Navy and the French Navy?

Third-party sources report that French ships, along with British ships, are accompanying the Theodore Roosevelt to the Gulf. This would indicate a joint military venture.

This is receiving no coverage by the media of the Western nations. It is a non-event. Yet if I know about it, and if I have been able to verify three-fifths of the story by official sources, then there is no question in my mind that any of the major news media that wanted to assign one lone individual to tracing down the details of this story would be able to do this without a great deal of difficulty. Yet the media have remained absolutely silent about this.

This sounds fishy to me. It sounds as though there is a coordinated effort among Jewish owners of the media to make certain that the voters are kept in the dark. Why should this story not be front-page news? Two very good reasons are the fragility of the economy with oil under $130 a barrel, and what could happen if it goes to $400. Nobody wants to trigger bank runs.

The existence of an armada of this size raises an obvious question: against which nation in the Persian Gulf is such an armada to be used? The answer is obvious: Iran. If this armada is to be used against Iran, the next question arises: what will happen to the price of oil if Iranian exports of oil are cut off by an armada whose purpose is to stop all trade with Iran?

Second question: What would happen to the price of oil if Iran sinks two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz?

Third question: What would happen to maritime insurance rates for oil tankers in the Persian Gulf?

This raises a fourth question: is the fleet's purpose to police the Strait of Hormuz, to make certain that the land-based anti-ship missiles that may have been installed by Iran can be stopped?

Fifth question: why would Iran sink oil tankers, apart from wartime? These questions relate to the supply of oil. The price of oil, as with the price of all other commodities, is set at the margin. The problem with the price of oil is that it is so volatile. There are no short-term supplies of oil that can come on-stream in response to rising prices. Because increased supplies do not respond to an increase in the price of oil, prices rise very fast and very high whenever there is a major interruption of oil production or delivery.

If Iran is attacked by either the United States or the Israeli Air Force, there will be retaliation by the Iranians. Iranian leaders have made it clear repeatedly that an attack on Iran by the Israeli Air Force will be regarded as an attack by the United States. At that point, the Middle East will begin to unravel.

f the Israeli Air Force attacks Iran, this will create an instant unified resistance movement by Muslims throughout the Middle East. This will include Sunni Muslims. The hatred of the Israelis by Muslims in the region is so intense that even though the Israeli Air Force attacks at Shi'ite nation, Sunni leaders will not be in a position to publicly justify such an attack. They would risk a revolution in their own countries if they did this. The best that the Israelis could expect would be silent neutrality.

Retaliation on the part of Iran will be expected by all Muslim nations in the Middle East.What could Iran do to impose negative sanctions on the United States? The first thing it can do is to stop all oil exports. This would create an economic depression in Iran. But if the armada is controlling the flow of goods into Iran anyway, then why not stop the export of Iranian oil?

If Iran cannot buy the goods that revenues from the sale of the oil would provide, then Iran's leaders might as well get some credit with their people for having stood up to the Americans. Iranian leaders will be able to say, accurately, that since United States has gone to war with Iran by creating an embargo around Iran, the smart thing to do is to inflict great economic damage on the United States. The leaders will be able to tell the people to buckle down, cut expenses, and suffer because this is the price of war with the Great Satan, which has indulged in an act of war against Iran. All the bad effects can be blamed on the United States, and all the tough talk will strengthen the regime that is in power at the time that the embargo is first announced.

This will wipe out any so-called moderates in Iran. The nation will come together against the United States. Next, Iran can begin to create havoc for American troops by supplying small arms to Shia militias inside Iraq and by supplying resistance fighters inside Afghanistan. There is nothing that the United States can do to stop the flow of low-cost, low-intensity arms out of Iran. The American death toll in both Iraq and Afghanistan would increase. The surge would find itself facing a much greater counter-surge.

NATO forces in Afghanistan will begin to suffer a series of defeats. This will certainly please Vladimir Putin. This will advance Russian hegemony in the region. All the Russians have to do is tell the world that they oppose this unauthorized embargo on Iran, and that it opposes any air strikes inside Iran by the United States or the Israeli Air Force. At this point, Russia will become a verbal ally of the Islamic world. This will be an enormous diplomatic advantage for Russia. It will be an extraordinary diplomatic disadvantage for the United States.

Because imposing an embargo was an act of war, and because Iran would have no particular reason to settle with the United States on terms that are in any way favorable to the United States, the Iranians need only bide their time. At some point, if the armada is removed from the Strait, the Iranians will again be in a position to sabotage oil tankers going through the Strait. So, once this embargo is imposed, it has to become permanent.

The tactic that would impose the greatest financial loss on the United States would be to sink oil tankers in the Strait. If the Iranians can sink as few as two tankers, this will result in huge increases in maritime insurance premiums for oil tankers sailing through the Strait. This would reduce the supply of oil reaching the West. Whether Iran can attack oil tankers in the Strait when the Strait is protected by American warships is a tactical question that I am not capable of answering accurately.

It may be that Iran's land-based missiles can be taken out by naval air power. But this would mean that the armada must remain inside the straight permanently. If Iran ceases to export oil, this alone would be sufficient to drive the price of oil into regions that will push the West into a recession. Thus, it is ominous that President Bush, as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, has ordered the five carrier task forces into the region.

I realize that the price of oil has not responded yet to this strategic move. The best thing we can say at this point is that the oil markets do not appear to regard this strategic move of the United States Navy as a serious threat to the supply of oil from the Middle East. Given the high-risk situation that has been created by the failure of subprime mortgages in the United States, an oil shock that drives oil above $200 a barrel is likely to create bankruptcies in major banks all over the West. Depositors are already jumpy.

If it appears that the Western economies are going to go into a simultaneous recession, because of a sharp increase in the price of oil that is likely to become permanent, the West's banking system, and surely its capital markets, will be at risk. The Iranians understand this. There is no reason why the rest of us should not understand this. Hence, there is a blackout on all information of the assembling of the armada all over the Western world.

Islamic societies do not tolerate military activities of non-Islamic nations against Islamic nations except in support of one Islamic nation against an invasion by another Islamic nation. It was possible for President George H. W. Bush to mobilize support from Sunni Islamic nations in the first Gulf War because Saddam Hussein had invaded Kuwait. This was perceived as an attack by a secular national leader against an Islamic nation.

President Bush understood that this did not authorize the conquest of Iraq by the West. This is why he stopped American troops from capturing Baghdad. The capture of Baghdad and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein were not part of the agreement by which the United States received financial and logistical support from oil-exporting Islamic nations in the Gulf.

The United States since 2003 has been able to gain grudging support by Sunni nations in the region only because the official justification for the invasion was to fight Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda is perceived by the oligarchies of the region as a threat to their own existence. Also, Saddam Hussein was perceived, not as a practicing Muslim, but as a secular autocrat. The United States was able to gain support from Pakistan, but this has created such resistance inside Pakistan that Musharraf has finally been forced out of office.

The thing that oil-exporting Muslim nations worry most about is the possibility that Iran will retaliate by sinking oil tankers that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. On this issue, oil-exporting Muslim nations may be willing to accept the presence of a Western armada in the Middle East. If the justification of the armada is to keep open the Hormuz Straight, oil-exporting nations may cooperate with the United States. They will not be able to say anything favorable toward Israel, but they may keep quiet about the use of the armada as a way to maintain revenues for themselves.

I have three other questions.

What is it that oil investors believe is a legitimate role for these carrier groups in the Persian Gulf that is not in some way related to the export of oil?

What is it that these carrier groups will do for the stability of oil exports from the region?

Why is it that these carrier groups are required to do what one carrier group was expected to earlier in the year?

There is no question that this is a major military show of force in the region. President Bush has decided to make this show of force. He has done so without informing the American media regarding the reason for this show of force. If the reason has nothing to do with Iran, he should say so. If the reason has something to do with Iran, then he should publicly discuss the question of the supply of oil exported from the Middle East. He should discuss how he intends to enable Iran to continue to export oil to the West, yet at the same time persuade the Iranians to change their policy on nuclear development.

What is it that five carrier task forces in the Persian Gulf can do to persuade the Iranians to change their policies, other than by interdicting oil trade with Iran? If this armada does this, how will Iranian oil exports not be affected? If these carrier forces are to interdict goods coming into Iran, what motivation does Iran have for continuing to export its most vital commodity, when Iran will not be able to use the proceeds from the sale of this commodity in order to buy Western goods?

If President Bush imposes an embargo on shipping in and out of Iran, and he does so after the November election but before the inauguration of a new President, he will deliver to the new administration a third war. The surge in Iraq will prove to have been a short-lived operation that succeeded only because Shia militias and the Shia-run government of Iraq decided to let the Americans alone.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan will become a disaster zone, and will remain a disaster zone for as long as Western troops are in the country. Iran need only sit and wait. The new administration will find that the world economy is disintegrating, that oil prices have moved up to such an extent that American voters will demand action, and the only action that will make any sense will be to withdraw all forces from the region. At that point, the Western economy will be completely dependent upon the good will of the Iranians.

If Iran stops the flow of oil by sinking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil will become astronomical. The greatest winner in such a scenario would be Russia. Russia would be in a position of almost complete monopoly over the oil markets. Under such a scenario, the new administration would have one problem to deal with, and that problem is war in the Middle East. All other issues, domestic and international, would fade into insignificance on the day oil goes over $200 a barrel.

Yet this could happen after the election but before the inauguration. President Bush will depart, and his replacement will be saddled with an economic disaster, a military disaster, and a domestic political disaster. There will not be a thing that the newly elected President can do prior to January 20 to deal with this problem. President Bush will be in absolute control because he is lawfully the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.

There could be a move to impeach him, but Congress has proven so utterly impotent over the last two years, and so utterly fearful of challenging the President on the issue of the war, that it is unlikely that Congress could mount a successful impeachment and trial by the Senate during the two-month period between the election of a new President and his inauguration.

If you think the price of oil would be astronomical under the conditions I have already described, add to this an impeachment attempt by Congress. That would tie up the Bush administration, which would mean that its policies in the Middle East will be set in concrete until January 20, 2009.

All of this may seem hypothetical. But, as Forrest Gump's mother might say, hypothetical is as hypothetical does. What is not hypothetical is the presence of this many carrier task forces in the Persian Gulf. If the carriers sailing in are merely to replace carriers which will soon be sailing out, the Defense Department's public affairs spokesman could say so.

He could also cite the Joint Chiefs of Staff. With the Middle Eastern press warning of an invasion, and rhetoric against Iran escalating, and Pakistan falling apart, now is not the time for silence. Business as usual is for times as usual.The media have been completely successful in blocking all information about this, not just in the United States, but in the Western countries generally. Nobody is paying any attention to this, except in the Middle East press. This includes oil investors. My opinion is that this blindness is going to result in a military disaster before the end of 2009.

If President Bush goes on national television this week to explain why he ordered this armada into the region, and this explanation is plausibly unrelated to Iran, oil, and the Strait of Hormuz, then I am willing to consider the possibility that the scenarios that I have outlined here are simply hypothetical. There may be a cogent explanation for why this many ships should be in the Persian Gulf. But in the middle of a tinder box, it is unwise to light matches.

You should think carefully about the implications of $400 oil on your family's finances. You should also think carefully about $400 oil's effect on your employer's finances. You should then think very carefully about what might be a plausible explanation for five carrier task forces in the Persian Gulf that do not point to $400 oil by January 20, 2009.